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Ecosystems in the Galapagos Island are strongly influenced by the climatic conditions that exist, including influences from strong El Niño events. There are some studies which suggest that global climate change could potentially lead to more frequent and even more intense El Niño events which could have serious implications for the Galapagos Islands. It could lead to changes in sea temperature and rainfall which would in turn affect the biodiversity on the islands. It is unknown how the ecosystems will respond to future climate change.

Climate Change Predictions

Potential changes that may occur this century according to current climate change prediction scenarios include:

• Higher Average air temperatures: The IPCC estimate global average temperatures could increase between 2 and 4°c by the end of the 21^st century. As the Galapagos Islands are located near the equator is it likely that temperatures would rise by the global average. 
• Higher sea surface temperature: As the ocean absorbs excess heat from the atmosphere the temperatures of the upper layers of the ocean increase. This would mean that the water surrounding the Galapagos Island would also get warmer. 
• Increased rainfall: Warming temperatures would be likely to lead to increased rainfall.
• Sea level rise: Current estimates suggest that sea levels around the Island have the potential to rise by around 1 metre by the end of the 21^st century. However the overall effect of global sea level rise on the Galapagos Islands is difficult to predict because volcanic activity on some islands could cause the land to rise (or subside). 
• Ocean acidification: The IPCC estimates that by the end of the 21^st century the oceans average pH will drop between 0.14 and 0.35 units meaning it will become more acidic. This is likely to cause a loss of biodiversity for the Galapagos Islands.

If there was increased ocean surface temperature this could result in the reducing of upwelling of cold water which is essential to wildlife around the islands. Increased rainfall and temperatures could make conditions difficult for existing species or lead to the introduction of other invasive species which could disrupt the ecosystem. There is also the possibility of sea level rise which could affect the island, reducing the areas of beaches which are used for nesting for species including penguins and turtles.

Impacts on Species

There are many species on the Galapagos Islands which could be affected by the changes in climate listed above. Some of these species and how they would be affected by climate change include:

• Giant tortoise: Higher temperatures could trigger migrations which could reduce nesting success. Increase in temperatures could lead to a greater variety of insects which may lead to reduced hatching success. 
• Sea turtle: Higher temperatures could disrupt egg development. Sea level rise could reduce beach size and therefore nesting areas. 
• Marine Iguana: Much like turtles, increased temperatures could interfere with egg development and coastal erosion would reduce nesting area availability. Changes in air temperature could also interfere with iguanas ability to regulate body temperature as they are cold-blooded. 
• Blue-Footed Booby: During El Niño events boobies have abandoned breeding colonies and increased migrations so increases in temperature have the potential to have similar effects. Sea level rise could also cause nest losses. Reduced upwelling would also reduce some of their food supply. 
• Land Iguanas: Changes in air temperature could interfere with iguana’s ability to regulate temperature much like the marine iguana. Changes in rainfall could reduce nesting success.